Population projections background

The Government Actuary's Department was responsible for the production of the official national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries from 1954 until 2006. Responsibility of the national population projections transferred to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in January 2006. However, for reference, full national population projections data from past projection rounds continue to be available from this website.

Population projections are produced for the United Kingdom and constituent countries by age and sex. The assumptions on which projections are based are agreed in liaison with the devolved administrations. The primary purpose of the projections is to provide an estimate of future population which is used as a common framework for national planning in a number of different fields. The latest projections, produced by ONS, are 2008-based and were published on 21 October 2009. Full details of this set of projections can be accessed from the National Statistics website.

The main focus of the 2008-based projections is on the first 25 years, up to 2033. Longer-term projections to the year 2083 are also available. However, population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward, and particularly so for smaller geographical areas

Population projections by marital status for England & Wales are also available.

 

Subnational population projections

These are produced by the statistical offices of the four countries. Click the link for contact details

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